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Japan is better placed to influence diplomacy in Korean peninsula
By Shimpei Ara
Posted: Dec 2, 2006
In the current crisis in the Korean Peninsula, Japan's position is better than those of China and South
Korea to such an extent that Japan can take advantage of it in the negotiations with the two countries.
Although there are many factors causing such a situation, they can be integrated into the geographical
difference between Japan and the two countries: the fact that China and South Korea border on North
Korea, but Japan does not.
The crisis is putting China and South Korea in awkward positions. If the current regime of North Korea
collapses in a dramatic way such as a revolution and a revolt from within, a large number of refugees
will flow into the two countries. This will have a serious influence on a wide range of areas in the
systems of both countries.
Assuming that such refugees are armed with weapons, how should they maintain security? Is it
possible to advance the employment of the refugees, who have not understood capitalism? How
should they re-educate those people who have grown up in the education system that is totally different
from those outside North Korea? These difficult problems will bring heavy burden on China and South
Korea economically and socially.
This possibility causes China and Sough Korea to try to prevent the current North Korean regime from
falling down by supporting the ''rogue state''.
On the other hand, taking into consideration that Japan is surrounded by water and relatively far from
North Korea, the impact of North Korean refugees on Japan will be quite limited. In addition, as long as
Japan keeps the solid relationship with the United States and the ''nuclear umbrella'' provided by the
super power is credible, on the presumption that the current Kim Jong-Il administration puts priority on
the maintenance of the regime, it is hard to predict that North Korea will attack Japan preemptively in
peacetime.
Unless there is an imminent military threat by North Korea, Japan can make the geographical
advantage a bargaining power in diplomacy in Northeast Asia.
What if the current crisis over North Korean nuclear weapons escalates into the warfare, of course, the
one involving the United States? In that case, Japan will be exposed to the direct threat. However,
China and South Korea will be put in more serious situation. As for South Korea, needless to say, the
problem is that its territory will be the very main battlefield. The damage will be immense, and the
reconstruction will take the country a long time.
China will face a serious question: whether or not to support North Korea. If China takes sides with
North Korea based on the security treaty between the two countries, a limited conflict in the Korean
Peninsula may lead to a great warfare between the two big powers, the United States and China.
There is a strong possibility that Japan will also be involved because of the security treaty with the
United States, which means that it may even escalate into the world-scale war.
On the other hand, if China decides not to get involved in the conflict in the peninsula, the North Korean
area may be occupied and reconstructed by coalition countries led by the United States, and to make
matters worse, a pro-American administration may be established there.
The threat to Japan will mainly be missile attacks from North Korea in the light of geographical
situations. Even though North Korea can launch many missiles into Japan, it still does not have the
technology to make nuclear weapons small enough to be carried on them. In addition, under the
current security system, such missile attacks on Japan lead to the counterattack on North Korean
missile sites from the United States.
It can be said that the threat to Japan is relatively limited in comparison with those to China and South
Korea.
The points discussed above show why China and South Korea have been taking relatively moderate
stances on North Korean issues. The above also indicate that the Japan's advantage is based on the
current situation that the security system based on the Japan-US relationship is credible and North
Korea cannot nuclear-attack Japan.
If this assumption changes, Japan will not only lose the advantage but also be forced to be the
weakest player in this area. Japan needs to take it into consideration and play an active role in
Northeast Asian diplomacy before such changes are realised.
### ### ###
Shimpei Ara is a civil servant based in Tokyo.
By Shimpei Ara
Posted: Dec 2, 2006
In the current crisis in the Korean Peninsula, Japan's position is better than those of China and South
Korea to such an extent that Japan can take advantage of it in the negotiations with the two countries.
Although there are many factors causing such a situation, they can be integrated into the geographical
difference between Japan and the two countries: the fact that China and South Korea border on North
Korea, but Japan does not.
The crisis is putting China and South Korea in awkward positions. If the current regime of North Korea
collapses in a dramatic way such as a revolution and a revolt from within, a large number of refugees
will flow into the two countries. This will have a serious influence on a wide range of areas in the
systems of both countries.
Assuming that such refugees are armed with weapons, how should they maintain security? Is it
possible to advance the employment of the refugees, who have not understood capitalism? How
should they re-educate those people who have grown up in the education system that is totally different
from those outside North Korea? These difficult problems will bring heavy burden on China and South
Korea economically and socially.
This possibility causes China and Sough Korea to try to prevent the current North Korean regime from
falling down by supporting the ''rogue state''.
On the other hand, taking into consideration that Japan is surrounded by water and relatively far from
North Korea, the impact of North Korean refugees on Japan will be quite limited. In addition, as long as
Japan keeps the solid relationship with the United States and the ''nuclear umbrella'' provided by the
super power is credible, on the presumption that the current Kim Jong-Il administration puts priority on
the maintenance of the regime, it is hard to predict that North Korea will attack Japan preemptively in
peacetime.
Unless there is an imminent military threat by North Korea, Japan can make the geographical
advantage a bargaining power in diplomacy in Northeast Asia.
What if the current crisis over North Korean nuclear weapons escalates into the warfare, of course, the
one involving the United States? In that case, Japan will be exposed to the direct threat. However,
China and South Korea will be put in more serious situation. As for South Korea, needless to say, the
problem is that its territory will be the very main battlefield. The damage will be immense, and the
reconstruction will take the country a long time.
China will face a serious question: whether or not to support North Korea. If China takes sides with
North Korea based on the security treaty between the two countries, a limited conflict in the Korean
Peninsula may lead to a great warfare between the two big powers, the United States and China.
There is a strong possibility that Japan will also be involved because of the security treaty with the
United States, which means that it may even escalate into the world-scale war.
On the other hand, if China decides not to get involved in the conflict in the peninsula, the North Korean
area may be occupied and reconstructed by coalition countries led by the United States, and to make
matters worse, a pro-American administration may be established there.
The threat to Japan will mainly be missile attacks from North Korea in the light of geographical
situations. Even though North Korea can launch many missiles into Japan, it still does not have the
technology to make nuclear weapons small enough to be carried on them. In addition, under the
current security system, such missile attacks on Japan lead to the counterattack on North Korean
missile sites from the United States.
It can be said that the threat to Japan is relatively limited in comparison with those to China and South
Korea.
The points discussed above show why China and South Korea have been taking relatively moderate
stances on North Korean issues. The above also indicate that the Japan's advantage is based on the
current situation that the security system based on the Japan-US relationship is credible and North
Korea cannot nuclear-attack Japan.
If this assumption changes, Japan will not only lose the advantage but also be forced to be the
weakest player in this area. Japan needs to take it into consideration and play an active role in
Northeast Asian diplomacy before such changes are realised.
### ### ###
Shimpei Ara is a civil servant based in Tokyo.
| (c) 2006 New Criterion Foundation, London |
| Security. Ideologies. Multiculturalism. |