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Beijing and Seoul don't want the North to fall but something must be done
By Justin Pirzadeh
Posted: Aug 1, 2006
Early last month, North Korea's Kim Jong II decided to fire six test missiles, all with varying ranges,
over the Sea of Japan. The launch date, July 5, for the missiles clearly was intended to overshadow
the launch of the Discovery space shuttle by the United States as well as the Fourth of July. The
shortest-range missile, a Scud-type rocket, has the potential capability to strike South Korea and
China, while the mid-range Nodong missile has a range of over 800 miles and could easily strike
Japan.
The most concerning missile however, the Taepodong 2, is a long-range missile with the ability to hit
Alaska and even, hypothetically, the west coast of the United States.
For the Kim Jong II, it seems as though his intentions were mainly to draw the attention of the
international community back to him and display his military capabilities, however limited they may be.
Kim Jong’s actions were by no means unexpected and completely daring, for it seems now like a
tradition of his regime to defy international treaties through missile tests. In 1998, North Korea
launched the Taepodong 1 in defiance of treaties made by the Clinton administration and North
Korea’s surrounding nations.
This latest display of defiance by the North is most likely an attempt to move the President’s attention
away from Iranian negotiations and shift them towards North Korean negotiations. North Korea has
seen an increase of economic sanctions by the United States since 1998. The United States has also
increasingly moved towards ending illegal money-laundering and counterfeiting, which provided a
major cash flow to the North.
These moves have crippled an already crutched North Korean economy, revealing to me at least, that
the latest launch has partly been an attempt by the North to instigate new negotiations with the United
States, using their missiles as a way to gain leverage. Though, desperation by the Kim Jong will
scarcely be met with understanding, as the United States refuses to deal with the North directly and
sees no reason to reward North Korean defiance.
The firing of the Taepodong 2 by no means caught the Bush administration by surprise, as spy
satellites had been scrupulously monitoring the rocket up until its launch. The weeks leading up to the
launch of the Taepodong 2 were filled with diplomatic tension due to continual boasts by the North
Koreans, who stated that they already possessed nuclear weapons. Though American intelligence
agencies believe that Kim Jong’s regime may possess the fuel for nuclear weapons, they have told
President Bush that it is highly unlikely that they have been able to develop a warhead small enough
to place atop one of their missiles.
Yet, the US President still received much advice by security advisors to destroy the weapon on the
launch pad despite its likely minimal threat. Among the advocates who urged the President to destroy
the missile were President Clinton’s defense secretary, William Perry, and his top aide on nuclear
issues, Ashton B. Carter of Harvard, two very prominent and respected voices on issues of national
security. The Bush administration however concluded that such a brash action “has always been
regarded as an unacceptable risk,” noted one of Mr Bush’s aides.
Another of the President’s national security aides said that “it sounds good, until you ask yourself the
question, what good is a strike if it leaves their nuclear capabilities untouched?” The Bush
administration has continued with their new found patient and passive approach to North Korea by
supporting diplomatic action over militant action. The administration is looking towards the six-party
talks to deal with the issue and has remained against dealing with Kim Jong directly.
Among the nations involved in the talks, there is great dissonance as to what should be done. China
and South Korea, North Korea’s biggest supporters, have issued their concern over the issue but do
not plan on taking any immediate economic or military action. Japan, however, has viewed the incident
as a major threat to their nation and has taken a number of measures against North Korea.
The Japanese Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, immediately cancelled all chartered flights to the
North as well as blocked all North Korean officials from entering Japan; the ferry that traverses the Sea
of Japan and delivers goods and currency into the North has been banned from entering Japanese
ports; and Japan has increased military presence and military funding.
The launch has created shifting loyalties in the Pacific, resulting in an even more isolated North Korea.
Japan has increased ties to the United States and the launch has caused China and South Korea to
reevaluate their ties to the North. Both China and South Korea have been under pressure by the United
States and Japan to punish the actions of the North because these two nations have the most
influence in Pyongyang.
China and South Korea do not want the North to fall because of the effect it could have on their
countries, but it seems at this point that something must be done. Kim Jong has clearly shown he
does not respect international treaties and acts brashly, which often results in dangerous situations.
China and South Korea need to reevaluate the importance of North Korean influence to them and deal
with the fact that major changes need to take place in the nation so that all three nations can benefit.
This may mean that the North needs to collapse and that military action needs to be taken.
### ### ###
Justin Pirzadeh is a Global Affairs Intern, The Atlantic Affairs.
By Justin Pirzadeh
Posted: Aug 1, 2006
Early last month, North Korea's Kim Jong II decided to fire six test missiles, all with varying ranges,
over the Sea of Japan. The launch date, July 5, for the missiles clearly was intended to overshadow
the launch of the Discovery space shuttle by the United States as well as the Fourth of July. The
shortest-range missile, a Scud-type rocket, has the potential capability to strike South Korea and
China, while the mid-range Nodong missile has a range of over 800 miles and could easily strike
Japan.
The most concerning missile however, the Taepodong 2, is a long-range missile with the ability to hit
Alaska and even, hypothetically, the west coast of the United States.
For the Kim Jong II, it seems as though his intentions were mainly to draw the attention of the
international community back to him and display his military capabilities, however limited they may be.
Kim Jong’s actions were by no means unexpected and completely daring, for it seems now like a
tradition of his regime to defy international treaties through missile tests. In 1998, North Korea
launched the Taepodong 1 in defiance of treaties made by the Clinton administration and North
Korea’s surrounding nations.
This latest display of defiance by the North is most likely an attempt to move the President’s attention
away from Iranian negotiations and shift them towards North Korean negotiations. North Korea has
seen an increase of economic sanctions by the United States since 1998. The United States has also
increasingly moved towards ending illegal money-laundering and counterfeiting, which provided a
major cash flow to the North.
These moves have crippled an already crutched North Korean economy, revealing to me at least, that
the latest launch has partly been an attempt by the North to instigate new negotiations with the United
States, using their missiles as a way to gain leverage. Though, desperation by the Kim Jong will
scarcely be met with understanding, as the United States refuses to deal with the North directly and
sees no reason to reward North Korean defiance.
The firing of the Taepodong 2 by no means caught the Bush administration by surprise, as spy
satellites had been scrupulously monitoring the rocket up until its launch. The weeks leading up to the
launch of the Taepodong 2 were filled with diplomatic tension due to continual boasts by the North
Koreans, who stated that they already possessed nuclear weapons. Though American intelligence
agencies believe that Kim Jong’s regime may possess the fuel for nuclear weapons, they have told
President Bush that it is highly unlikely that they have been able to develop a warhead small enough
to place atop one of their missiles.
Yet, the US President still received much advice by security advisors to destroy the weapon on the
launch pad despite its likely minimal threat. Among the advocates who urged the President to destroy
the missile were President Clinton’s defense secretary, William Perry, and his top aide on nuclear
issues, Ashton B. Carter of Harvard, two very prominent and respected voices on issues of national
security. The Bush administration however concluded that such a brash action “has always been
regarded as an unacceptable risk,” noted one of Mr Bush’s aides.
Another of the President’s national security aides said that “it sounds good, until you ask yourself the
question, what good is a strike if it leaves their nuclear capabilities untouched?” The Bush
administration has continued with their new found patient and passive approach to North Korea by
supporting diplomatic action over militant action. The administration is looking towards the six-party
talks to deal with the issue and has remained against dealing with Kim Jong directly.
Among the nations involved in the talks, there is great dissonance as to what should be done. China
and South Korea, North Korea’s biggest supporters, have issued their concern over the issue but do
not plan on taking any immediate economic or military action. Japan, however, has viewed the incident
as a major threat to their nation and has taken a number of measures against North Korea.
The Japanese Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, immediately cancelled all chartered flights to the
North as well as blocked all North Korean officials from entering Japan; the ferry that traverses the Sea
of Japan and delivers goods and currency into the North has been banned from entering Japanese
ports; and Japan has increased military presence and military funding.
The launch has created shifting loyalties in the Pacific, resulting in an even more isolated North Korea.
Japan has increased ties to the United States and the launch has caused China and South Korea to
reevaluate their ties to the North. Both China and South Korea have been under pressure by the United
States and Japan to punish the actions of the North because these two nations have the most
influence in Pyongyang.
China and South Korea do not want the North to fall because of the effect it could have on their
countries, but it seems at this point that something must be done. Kim Jong has clearly shown he
does not respect international treaties and acts brashly, which often results in dangerous situations.
China and South Korea need to reevaluate the importance of North Korean influence to them and deal
with the fact that major changes need to take place in the nation so that all three nations can benefit.
This may mean that the North needs to collapse and that military action needs to be taken.
### ### ###
Justin Pirzadeh is a Global Affairs Intern, The Atlantic Affairs.
| (c) 2006 New Criterion Foundation, London |
| Security. Ideologies. Multiculturalism. |