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What is the issue of North Korea for China and Russia and does it matter?
By Shimpei Ara
Posted: July 15, 2006
On 5th July, North Korea launched seven ballistic missiles, which landed in the Sea of Japan. This led
some members of the UN Security Council including the US and Japan to draft a resolution, which
calls for sanctions against North Korea. However, it seems difficult that the Council will reach an
agreement because of China and Russia’s opposition to punitive measures.
As has been seen in the past years, the two countries tend not to take hostile posture towards North
Korea. This has always prevented the other countries, specifically the US and Japan, from dealing with
the Stalinist state as they hope.
Although regarded as North Korea’s closest ally and biggest donator, China is not very different from
other countries in that it also thinks that there are many problems in the current regime in North Korea.
Beijing also expressed serious concern about the missile launch this time and complained that
Pyongyang did not inform of the test-fire previously.
However, Beijing is not too unhappy to accept the status quo. The fact is that the more crises happen in
the Korean Peninsula, the more diplomatic cards Beijing obtains as long as they do not escalate into
war. Under the situation in which there is no direct negotiation between Washington and Pyongyang,
Beijing is able to behave as the most important actor in various occasions.
By using influence with Pyongyang, Beijing can control the international security in Northeast Asia and
gain bargaining power in relation to the US and Japan.
On the other hand, the collapse of the current Kim regime in North Korea will mean the worst
nightmare for China. Beijing is very fearful of such a change, which will cause the inflow of many
refugees and make the situation in its own Northeast region very unstable. In that case, in addition, the
western countries – led by the US – may place their troops in the area, which will shift the political and
military balance there in favour of China’s rivals.
In conclusion, to maintain the status quo is the best choice for China.
The case in Russia is similar to the above. Although the former Soviet Union was the greatest
supporter for the Stalinist regime, the dissolution of the federation and the following reform and
opening by Kremlin had greatly estranged Russia from North Korea. It can be said that the government
was so busy in trying to recover economy that it could not afford to consider the traditional ally, which is
one of the reasons why North Korean economy dramatically deteriorated in the 1990s.
However, such Russian stance towards the neighbour has changed since Vladimir Putin was
inaugurated as president. With rapidly recovering economy based on the production and export of
natural resources abounding in its own territory, his administration has tried to restore the political
position as a big country and strengthen its political influence. Against the background of such an
intention of Kremlin, the relationship between the two countries has been ameliorating.
Engaging with the crisis in the peninsula as an active player provides Russia with the occasion of
influencing one of the most important global issues addressed by the US, which satisfies the above
ambition. However, Russia also here faces the same reality as China – such political chances are
available only when the status quo is maintained.
In the case of Russia, more seriously, geographical and geopolitical reasons – one of which is,
needless to say, the existence of China – limit the state’s chance to exercise its power in Northeast
Asia. Therefore, the possible situation following the breakdown of Kim Jong-il regime mentioned
above will deprive Russia of nearly all political stages in this region.
As mentioned above, China and Russia are able to keep the balance in Northeast Asia by letting the
rogue state survive. Without considering the political intentions of these two big states, it is difficult to
deal with the North Korea crisis. Japan is now facing the challenge which requires carefully balancing
the neighbouring countries’ interests.
### ### ###
Shimpei Ara is a civil servant and lives with his wife in Tokyo.
By Shimpei Ara
Posted: July 15, 2006
On 5th July, North Korea launched seven ballistic missiles, which landed in the Sea of Japan. This led
some members of the UN Security Council including the US and Japan to draft a resolution, which
calls for sanctions against North Korea. However, it seems difficult that the Council will reach an
agreement because of China and Russia’s opposition to punitive measures.
As has been seen in the past years, the two countries tend not to take hostile posture towards North
Korea. This has always prevented the other countries, specifically the US and Japan, from dealing with
the Stalinist state as they hope.
Although regarded as North Korea’s closest ally and biggest donator, China is not very different from
other countries in that it also thinks that there are many problems in the current regime in North Korea.
Beijing also expressed serious concern about the missile launch this time and complained that
Pyongyang did not inform of the test-fire previously.
However, Beijing is not too unhappy to accept the status quo. The fact is that the more crises happen in
the Korean Peninsula, the more diplomatic cards Beijing obtains as long as they do not escalate into
war. Under the situation in which there is no direct negotiation between Washington and Pyongyang,
Beijing is able to behave as the most important actor in various occasions.
By using influence with Pyongyang, Beijing can control the international security in Northeast Asia and
gain bargaining power in relation to the US and Japan.
On the other hand, the collapse of the current Kim regime in North Korea will mean the worst
nightmare for China. Beijing is very fearful of such a change, which will cause the inflow of many
refugees and make the situation in its own Northeast region very unstable. In that case, in addition, the
western countries – led by the US – may place their troops in the area, which will shift the political and
military balance there in favour of China’s rivals.
In conclusion, to maintain the status quo is the best choice for China.
The case in Russia is similar to the above. Although the former Soviet Union was the greatest
supporter for the Stalinist regime, the dissolution of the federation and the following reform and
opening by Kremlin had greatly estranged Russia from North Korea. It can be said that the government
was so busy in trying to recover economy that it could not afford to consider the traditional ally, which is
one of the reasons why North Korean economy dramatically deteriorated in the 1990s.
However, such Russian stance towards the neighbour has changed since Vladimir Putin was
inaugurated as president. With rapidly recovering economy based on the production and export of
natural resources abounding in its own territory, his administration has tried to restore the political
position as a big country and strengthen its political influence. Against the background of such an
intention of Kremlin, the relationship between the two countries has been ameliorating.
Engaging with the crisis in the peninsula as an active player provides Russia with the occasion of
influencing one of the most important global issues addressed by the US, which satisfies the above
ambition. However, Russia also here faces the same reality as China – such political chances are
available only when the status quo is maintained.
In the case of Russia, more seriously, geographical and geopolitical reasons – one of which is,
needless to say, the existence of China – limit the state’s chance to exercise its power in Northeast
Asia. Therefore, the possible situation following the breakdown of Kim Jong-il regime mentioned
above will deprive Russia of nearly all political stages in this region.
As mentioned above, China and Russia are able to keep the balance in Northeast Asia by letting the
rogue state survive. Without considering the political intentions of these two big states, it is difficult to
deal with the North Korea crisis. Japan is now facing the challenge which requires carefully balancing
the neighbouring countries’ interests.
### ### ###
Shimpei Ara is a civil servant and lives with his wife in Tokyo.
| (c) 2006 New Criterion Foundation, London |
| Security. Ideologies. Multiculturalism. |