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Japan grasps new security situation to its west
By Shimpei Ara
Posted: May 01, 2006
Traditionally Japan’s defence posture has put emphasis on the
north – the former Soviet Union. This stance continued for long even
after the end of Cold War, during which all members of the West were
required to get involved in in defence against the Communist Bloc.
However, now the threat becoming bigger and bigger rapidly is
actually to the west of Japan – China and North Korea . And Japan is
now forced to establish its new security posture.
Assuming a large-scale landing invasion by the Soviet Union, Japan
placed main armored troops in Hokkaido, the north-end island of
Japan. Although the probability of war between Japan and Russia has
been becoming lower since the collapse of the communist state,
Japan has maintained this security posture.
On the other hand, the international security environment in the
northeast Asia has changed since the 1990s. China is now increasing
its defence expenditure by the highest rates in the world and is
dramatically improving its military forces. The tension in the Taiwan
Strait is running high specifically since Beijing formally sanctioned the
use of force against Taipei in case it moved towards declaring
statehood.
North Korea is keeping brinkmanship by threatening the international
community with nuclear weapons. In addition to those factors, now
that Japan is involved with the US-led War on Terror, the risk of
terrorist attacks also has to be considered. These realities make it
clear that the traditional defence posture is nothing but the ghost of
Cold War and is out of date for Japanese position in the current
security environment – the risk of conflict is not to the north but to the
west of Japan.
Considering the international military situation like the above, Japan at
last revised its National Defence Programme Guidelines on the 10th
of December in 2004. In this authorised document, the Japanese
government clearly stated that it had to pay attention to the recent
instabilities caused by China and North Korea, which had been
avoided until now in order not to stimulate those neighbouring countries.
Based on such a view, the guidelines advocated some defence
postures which can be thought to be aimed at the above two states:
first, response to ballistic missile attacks; second, response to the
invasion of Japan’s offshore islands; three, patrol and surveillance in
the sea and airspace surrounding Japan and so on.
Response to ballistic missile attacks
Japan is preparing for such a response. It is now being realised by the
development of ballistic missile defence system under the
cooperation with the US. Needless to say, this effort is to deal with the
missile threats from North Korea, and in the long run, China.
Response to invasion of offshore islands
The need for such a response was realised by Japan partly as a result
of China’s recent claims that Japanese sovereignty over some islands
in East China Sea and Pacific Ocean should not be accepted. Japan
placed a strong infantry regiment in the west in order to achieve this
objective. The shift of main forces from the north to the west will be
accelerated from now on.
Surveillance of sea and airspace
The need for surveillance of sea and airspace surrounding Japan is
also in response to Chinese movements, such as many investigation
activities around the borders of Japanese exclusive economic zones
and submarine invasions of the territory of Japan. Since Japan has
large territorial sea to the southwest of its mainland, the strengthening
of maritime and air defence in this area is urgent.
The above three points, along with Japanese participation in the
US-led War on Terror, are a result of a realisation of new security
situation in the west, originating from North Korea and -- in the longer
term -- from China.
It can be said that the Northeast Asia is one of the most dangerous
areas in terms of the probability of the occurrence of bilateral conflicts.
In such an environment, Japan is now trying to change the traditional
hesitancy to discuss its own defence posture and to develop multi-
functional, flexible and effective defense forces which can deal with the
changing situations.
____________________________________
Shimpei Ara is a defence affairs analyst. He graduated in War Studies
from the Department of War Studies, King's College London, and now
lives with his wife in Tokyo.
By Shimpei Ara
Posted: May 01, 2006
Traditionally Japan’s defence posture has put emphasis on the
north – the former Soviet Union. This stance continued for long even
after the end of Cold War, during which all members of the West were
required to get involved in in defence against the Communist Bloc.
However, now the threat becoming bigger and bigger rapidly is
actually to the west of Japan – China and North Korea . And Japan is
now forced to establish its new security posture.
Assuming a large-scale landing invasion by the Soviet Union, Japan
placed main armored troops in Hokkaido, the north-end island of
Japan. Although the probability of war between Japan and Russia has
been becoming lower since the collapse of the communist state,
Japan has maintained this security posture.
On the other hand, the international security environment in the
northeast Asia has changed since the 1990s. China is now increasing
its defence expenditure by the highest rates in the world and is
dramatically improving its military forces. The tension in the Taiwan
Strait is running high specifically since Beijing formally sanctioned the
use of force against Taipei in case it moved towards declaring
statehood.
North Korea is keeping brinkmanship by threatening the international
community with nuclear weapons. In addition to those factors, now
that Japan is involved with the US-led War on Terror, the risk of
terrorist attacks also has to be considered. These realities make it
clear that the traditional defence posture is nothing but the ghost of
Cold War and is out of date for Japanese position in the current
security environment – the risk of conflict is not to the north but to the
west of Japan.
Considering the international military situation like the above, Japan at
last revised its National Defence Programme Guidelines on the 10th
of December in 2004. In this authorised document, the Japanese
government clearly stated that it had to pay attention to the recent
instabilities caused by China and North Korea, which had been
avoided until now in order not to stimulate those neighbouring countries.
Based on such a view, the guidelines advocated some defence
postures which can be thought to be aimed at the above two states:
first, response to ballistic missile attacks; second, response to the
invasion of Japan’s offshore islands; three, patrol and surveillance in
the sea and airspace surrounding Japan and so on.
Response to ballistic missile attacks
Japan is preparing for such a response. It is now being realised by the
development of ballistic missile defence system under the
cooperation with the US. Needless to say, this effort is to deal with the
missile threats from North Korea, and in the long run, China.
Response to invasion of offshore islands
The need for such a response was realised by Japan partly as a result
of China’s recent claims that Japanese sovereignty over some islands
in East China Sea and Pacific Ocean should not be accepted. Japan
placed a strong infantry regiment in the west in order to achieve this
objective. The shift of main forces from the north to the west will be
accelerated from now on.
Surveillance of sea and airspace
The need for surveillance of sea and airspace surrounding Japan is
also in response to Chinese movements, such as many investigation
activities around the borders of Japanese exclusive economic zones
and submarine invasions of the territory of Japan. Since Japan has
large territorial sea to the southwest of its mainland, the strengthening
of maritime and air defence in this area is urgent.
The above three points, along with Japanese participation in the
US-led War on Terror, are a result of a realisation of new security
situation in the west, originating from North Korea and -- in the longer
term -- from China.
It can be said that the Northeast Asia is one of the most dangerous
areas in terms of the probability of the occurrence of bilateral conflicts.
In such an environment, Japan is now trying to change the traditional
hesitancy to discuss its own defence posture and to develop multi-
functional, flexible and effective defense forces which can deal with the
changing situations.
____________________________________
Shimpei Ara is a defence affairs analyst. He graduated in War Studies
from the Department of War Studies, King's College London, and now
lives with his wife in Tokyo.
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